Tropical Cyclone Discussion

097
WTNT41 KNHC 220841
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Deep convection associated with Fay has completely dissipated, 
leaving the low-level center fully exposed on satellite imagery. 
Given the lack of organized deep convection over the past several 
hours, Fay's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited unless 
convection redevelops soon. Objective and subjective satellite 
intensity estimates currently range from 25 to 44 kt. Based on a 
blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 
kt for this advisory.
 
The system is moving southwestward, or 230/8 kt, as it rounds the 
eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward 
the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day 
or two, as the ridge strengthens. The latest NHC track forecast is 
near the previous nudged slightly towards the right, towards the 
GDMI and HCCA aids.
 
A combination of moderate wind shear and dry air entrainment should 
cause Fay to gradually spin down and weaken. Although shear may 
relax somewhat in a few days, as the system moves over slightly 
warmer sea surface temperatures, model-simulated satellite imagery 
suggests that any returning convection will occur only in 
intermittent bursts. Based on current trends and model guidance, the 
NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to gradually weaken, and become 
a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate into an open 
trough by the end of the period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 31.8N  33.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 31.2N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 29.9N  38.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 29.7N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1800Z 29.8N  42.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 29.9N  43.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 30.1N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED