Tropical Cyclone Discussion
056 WTPZ41 KNHC 220839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Bursts of deep convection continue near the center of Odalys tonight as the cyclone becomes better organized. Although recent scatterometer passes missed the circulation, microwave imagery shows an improving structure, with convective banding now evident over the southern and eastern quadrants. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS range from 47 to 55 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory, leaning toward the higher end of these estimates. The system is moving north-northwestward, or 340/6 kt. A decrease in forward speed is expected today as the cyclone turns northward, northeastward, and then east-northeastward tonight in response to a deepening trough moving into the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United States. An east-northeastward to eastward motion is forecast for the rest of the week as Odalys is steered within the flow of the trough. Toward the end of the forecast period, the track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to a potential binary interaction with Hurricane Polo as it tracks toward Baja California, which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the period. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though nudged slightly leftward and slowed down given the model uncertainty around day 5. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for strengthening over the next couple of days, as vertical wind shear slightly decreases, with abundant mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. In 48 to 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter a drier mid-level air mass and may experience increased wind shear induced by upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance, aligned closely with the HCCA and GDMI aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH