Tropical Cyclone Discussion
029 WTPZ42 KNHC 220837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 Polo continues to intensify at a very rapid rate, and it is closing in on category 5 strength. Satellite images indicate that Polo has a compact, well-defined eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. The estimated initial intensity is 130 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite estimates. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Polo later today, and the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. The intensification rate over the past 24 hours is truly remarkable, with Polo strengthening by about 90 kt over that time period. Despite its strength, Polo remains a relatively compact cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye, respectively. The major hurricane continues to drift to the east-southeast, and it could become nearly stationary later today in weak steering currents. A sharp turn to the northwest is expected tonight as deep-layer ridging becomes established over Mexico and the south-central U.S. This pattern should bring the intense core of Polo near, but likely just offshore, of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in how close the hurricane will get to the coast, and some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo makes its closest approach. Polo should begin to pull away from southwestern Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the system on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering currents become more complicated over the weekend when Polo reaches the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its west. This pattern change should cause Polo to slow down and gain a little more latitude. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, but still lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope. Polo remains in ideal environmental conditions and continued rapid intensification appears likely, and the cyclone is forecast to reach category 5 strength later today. It should be noted that in mature and powerful hurricanes like Polo, internal dynamics often cause intensity fluctuations and that could occur with this cyclone over the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a slight increase in easterly vertical wind shear should cause slow weakening, but Polo is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance in the short term, but falls to near the middle of the guidance envelope from 48 to 120 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico, it is too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.6N 101.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W 105 KT 120 MPH