Tropical Cyclone Discussion
154 WTPZ41 KNHC 220258 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Odalys is showing signs of becoming better organized tonight. Recent IR imagery depicts a plume of convection with cooling cloud-top temperatures near the estimated center of the storm, along with a persistent convective banding to its south. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 3.5/55 kt, while objective intensity estimates are lower, ranging from 37-49 kt. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest and is centered between a strong mid-level ridge to the northwest and a deepening mid-level trough moving through the southwestern United States and the Baja California peninsula. A turn toward the north, followed by a sharp turn toward the east-northeast with a slight decrease in forward speed, is forecast tonight through Tuesday. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected through much of the remainder of the week as the aforementioned trough deepens and stalls over the far eastern Pacific. The track forecast becomes more complicated in the longer range, as some interaction between Odalys and Hurricane Polo could occur as it parallels the coast of southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous track forecast, and remains near the middle of the forecast guidance envelope. Decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature will support gradual strengthening over the next couple of days, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by around 36 h. The hurricane is forecast to plateau in intensity around midweek, before increasing dry-air entrainment leads to slow weakening this weekend. The latest NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity forecast guidance, and is in close agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.3N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH