Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
809 WTPZ32 KNHC 220244 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026 ...POLO STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 102.3W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional watches and warnings could be necessary tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 102.3 West. Polo is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue overnight, with a sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane shortly, and a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.