Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
452 WTPZ32 KNHC 211154 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 600 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026 ...POLO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 103.7W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.7 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is expected to become a hurricane late today and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.