Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
028 AXNT20 KNHC 202149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W, south of 16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of 20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 05N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N and east of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. For the forecast, weak ridging across the southeastern U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. Looking ahead, a cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri, leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper- level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and northwestern Caribbean through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 34.4N 32.7W at 20/2100 UTC or 350 nm SW of the Azores, moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W, except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of 45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for large N-NE swell. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay will strengthen to a hurricane near 34.3N 32.3W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 33.6N 32.5W Mon afternoon, move to 32.5N 33.5W Tue morning, 31.4N 35.1W Tue afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 30.5N 36.8W Wed morning, and 29.8N 38.7W Wed afternoon. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.0N 42.0W Thu afternoon.