Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
470 AXPZ20 KNHC 202130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 11.7N 126.6W at 20/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 123W and 127W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 05N to 14N between 120W and 130W. Odalys is forecast to move northwestward for the next day or so, then turn eastward. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification, and Odalys is forecast to reach hurricane strength Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is centered near 14.9N 104.9W at 20/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N to 17N between 101W and 106W. The system is forecast to turn toward the east in the next 12-24 hours while intensifying, reaching hurricane intensity Mon night. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 17-E will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Tropical Depression 17-E is forecast to strengthen and move closer to the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later this week. Swell generated from the system will start to impact the SW coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Jalisco by mid week, then to Baja California sur by the end of the week. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85/86W, moving westward near 5-10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N104W to 09N120W. It resumes west of Odalys near 12N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N east of 90W, from 03N to 11N between 92W and 100W, from 06N to 14N between 106W and 114W, and from 03N to 17N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. Aside from conditions associated with Tropical Depression Seventeen-E, moderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, aside from conditions associated with Tropical Depression Seventeen-E, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of TD Seventeen-E. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu night across the offshores. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for details on Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. Outside of Odalys and Seventeen-E, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters N of the monsoon trough to near 24N and west of 132W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast, Odalys will move to 12.8N 127.8W Mon morning, 14.0N 129.0W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.8N 129.6W Tue morning, 15.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 15.0N 128.7W Wed morning, and 15.1N 127.7W Wed afternoon. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to near 15.9N 126.0W Thu afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail.