Tropical Cyclone Discussion

046
WTPZ41 KNHC 201456
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deep convection has been increasing in association with Odalys 
this morning, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C near the 
estimate center location.  Some banding features are beginning to 
develop over the southern semicircle of the system.  Upper-level 
outflow is limited to the north of the storm, however.  The current 
intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of 
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial 
motion is west-northwestward, or around 285/8 kt.  Odalys should 
turn northwestward as it moves on the southwestern side of a 
narrow and weakening mid-level ridge to its northeast.  After 
about 48 hours, the system should slow and turn northeastward  
and eastward in response to the ridge weakening  and a 
mid-tropospheric trough moving over southern California and Baja 
California.  Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should 
move generally northeastward along the northwest side of a 
mid-level ridge.  However there is significant uncertainty in 
the 3-5 day track of Odalys due its potential interaction with a 
developing tropical cyclone to its east.  The official track 
forecast is fairly close to the lastest corrected model consensus, 
HCCA, prediction.

Odalys should be in an environment conducive for strengthening 
during the next few days, with very warm waters, low to moderate 
vertical wind shear, and high low- to mid-level humidity.  
Therefore gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple 
of days,  and the official forecast is close to the latest 
Decay-SHIPS model guidance.  Later in the forecast period, the 
system may encounter a little drier air and its intensity become 
hindered by its interaction with the developing tropical cyclone 
closer to the coast of Mexico. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 11.1N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH