Tropical Cyclone Discussion

318
WTNT41 KNHC 200842
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
 
Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone
and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours.
The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and
range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass
from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This
makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact,
with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about
40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about
100-150 n mi across.
 
The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements
from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to
gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the
trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear
and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely
become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week
as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions.
The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given
the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic
support.
 
Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue
for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is
anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that
should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in
that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend 
of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 33.7N  33.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 34.1N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 34.0N  32.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 33.3N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 32.0N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 31.0N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z 30.1N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0600Z 28.9N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED