Tropical Cyclone Discussion

346
WTNT41 KNHC 191449
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026
 
A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring 
southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and 
peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone 
still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that 
area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, 
the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of 
strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB 
Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last 
forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been 
started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 
kt.

Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should 
start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for 
the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the 
northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which 
will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is 
expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast 
period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the 
HCCA and GDMI.

The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable 
environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow 
for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. 
After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher 
shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact 
the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is 
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then 
dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF 
show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has 
the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has 
dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity 
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly 
under HCCA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 32.6N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 33.0N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 33.6N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 33.8N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 33.4N  32.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 32.4N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 31.0N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1200Z 28.9N  37.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED