Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

084
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Recent satellite-derived wind data show that the area of low 
pressure located well south-southwest of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico is still elongated, and the shower and thunderstorm activity 
remains disorganized. However, environmental conditions are 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form over the next couple of days as the system moves generally 
northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the 
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Western East Pacific (EP98):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to persist in 
association with an area of low pressure located well southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is expected to form over the next several days as it moves westward 
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East 
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical 
Depression Fifteen-E, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, 
remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
some development of this system next week as it moves westward to 
west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the 
south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands towards the middle to 
latter portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.