Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

345
ABPZ20 KNHC 172356
TWOEP 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula remain disorganized. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as it moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the western part of the East Pacific 
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with the remnants 
of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Environmental conditions appear 
only marginally conducive for some development of this system as it 
moves gradually westward, remaining east-southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a tropical wave 
located several hundred miles south of Southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while it moves gradually northwestward 
and then northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.