Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

136
AXNT20 KNHC 162033
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W, south 
of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 19N between 
23W and 31W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 58W and 66W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 09N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N60W. Aside from convection noted in
the tropical waves section above, Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 07N to 10N between 41W and 47W. 
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Fresh to locally strong winds, and moderate seas, prevail in the 
NE Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and slight seas, are
noted. 
For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds and 
moderate to rough seas over the NE Gulf will spread westward over 
the remainder of the northern Gulf waters through late Thu night.
Winds will diminish Fri into Sat, leading to moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend. Meanwhile, a
rather broad mid to upper-level trough will move toward Florida 
from the western Atlantic Thu through Fri as it transitions to low
pressure. This feature will lead to increasing shower and 
thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The moderate pressure gradient between ridging north of the area 
along with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is supporting 
fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally rough seas are over these waters. Moderate to
fresh winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere east of 80W. W of
80W, gentle to locally moderate winds, and slight to moderate
seas, prevail. 
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in South 
America will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force 
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the 
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the 
eastern Caribbean through the weekend as winds diminish and seas 
subside elsewhere across the basin as the pressures gradient 
relaxes. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will 
reach the western Caribbean during the upcoming weekend expected 
to be accompanied with scattered showers and thunderstorms. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to
the N Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong winds, and moderate to
locally rough seas, prevail N of the front. Light to
gentle winds, and slight seas, are SE of the front N of 22N and W
of 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas, are noted near 
the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas prevail. 
For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a stationary front 
that extends from just east of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas will 
maintain mostly fresh northeast winds and moderate seas W of the 
front through Thu. Conditions will improve late Thu into Fri as 
high pressure becomes the dominate feature across the basin into 
the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad mid to upper-level trough located 
just east of the southeastern Bahamas in combination with a very 
moist and unstable environment will continue to support scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast 
waters through the next few days as the trough gradually 
transitions to low pressure that will be moving in a west to 
northwest direction.