Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161758
TWOEP 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Northwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure has moved inland over the western 
portions of Sonora during the last few hours.  While development 
chances have ended, the risk of heavy rains and flash flooding 
continues to portions of Sonora and into the Southwestern deserts of 
the United States. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico within the next few days.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development, and this system could 
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable 
for significant development through the weekend as the system moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph.  However, gradual development of 
this system is possible early next week, and this system could 
become a tropical depression when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.