Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
425 AXNT20 KNHC 161531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-16N between 23W-32W. A sharp tropical wave is moving across E Caribbean, located along 64W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 13N-18N between 56W-63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal near 15N18W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N39W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-16N between 23W-32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the SE United States is helping to force fresh to locally strong E winds in the NE Gulf with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. Isolated moderate convection is located over most of the Gulf north of 22N east of 95W. For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure ridging over the eastern U.S. that stretches southwestward to the southeastern U.S. will generally allow for fresh to strong northeast to east winds and moderate to rough seas over the NE Gulf this afternoon, spreading to across the rest of the northern Gulf waters through late Thu night. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri into Sat, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend. Meanwhile, a rather broad mid to upper- level trough over the Bahamas will move toward Florida Thu through Fri leading to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The moderate pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is forcing only fresh trades over the S central Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft. Additionally, the trades are locally fresh over the Lesser Antilles with seas 4-6 ft through the passages in association with the sharp tropical wave over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 13N-18N between 56W-63W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW Caribbean in association with the monsoon trough from the NE Pacific. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in South America will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the eastern Caribbean through the weekend as winds diminish and seas subside elsewhere across the basin as the pressures gradient relaxes. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean during the upcoming weekend expected to be accompanied with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to the N Bahamas. Winds poleward of the front are NE fresh to locally strong with seas 6-8 ft. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 20N-31N between 55W-75W in association with the front as well as a vigorous tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) extending from the Greater Antilles to near Bermuda. Elsewhere a surface trough extends from 22N36W to 31N34W with isolated moderate convection from 29N-31N between 30W-42W. Winds are N strong to near-gale along the Agadir coast of Morrocco with seas 5-7 ft. Winds are also N fresh to strong through the Canary Islands with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds across the tropical North Atlantic are gentle to moderate with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a stationary front that extends from just east of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas will bring fresh to strong northeast winds and build seas to a rough state north of the Bahamas and west of about 70W through Thu. Conditions will improve late Thu into Fri as broad ridging dominates the basin into the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad mid to upper-level trough located just east of the southeastern Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable environment will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters through the next few days as the system shifts northwestward.