Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

099
AXPZ20 KNHC 161432
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over southern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N to NE 
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and Thu, and will 
reach minimal gale force overnight tonight and briefly Thu night.
Rough seas will accompany these gap winds.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 02N to 17N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N97W to 12N114W to
10N120W, then from 10N131W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 92W, and from 04N to 
14N between 104W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see Special Features section above for more on a gale 
warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near weak low 
pressure over the central Gulf of California. Associated moderate
to fresh winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4-7 ft are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft 
in the central and southern Gulf.
For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for 
information about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near 
weak low pressure over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to 
locally strong winds associated with the low pressure will 
persist mainly over the northern Gulf through tonight. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate seas, prevail 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 
90W. Moderate to fresh winds extend downstream from the Gulf of
Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and 
Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region into Thu, then 
pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas 
will prevail elsewhere. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The remnant low of TD Fifteen-E is centered near 16N128W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active in the vicinity
of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are within 
120 nm to the north of the center. This is all part of a larger 
area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas between the low 
pressure and the subtropical ridge north of the area, reaching 
from 14N to 23N west of 125W. Farther south, cross- equatorial SW
swell to 8 ft is reaching as far north as 04N between 110W and 
125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft combined seas in mixed 
swell are noted elsewhere. 
For the forecast, a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds
and moderate to rough seas in N swell will persist through the 
remainder of the week from 15N to 25N west of 125W. The 
southerly swell south of 03N will subside below 8 ft by this 
evening.