Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

508
ABPZ20 KNHC 160513
TWOEP 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico by the end of the week.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development by the weekend, and this 
system could become a tropical depression early next week while it 
moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Gulf of California:
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in 
association with a small area of low pressure that is moving 
north-northwestward over the central Gulf of California.  
Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development 
before the system moves inland over the state of Sonora by midday 
Wednesday.  Regardless of formation, periods of heavy rain and 
isolated flooding are possible over that state through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Western East Pacific:
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be 
unfavorable for significant development through the weekend as the 
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Some gradual development of 
this system is possible early next week when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.