Tropical Cyclone Discussion

141
WTPA41 PHFO 150837
TCDCP1
 
Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026
 
Deep convection has completely dissipated over the low-level center
of Norbert, which is fully exposed on proxy-visible satellite
imagery. What limited convection remains is displaced more than 150
n mi to the northeast of the center and has become intermittent.
Given the persistent lack of organized deep convection, Norbert's
remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited. Based on satellite
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, JTWC, and HFO, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
Norbert continues moving generally westward, with an initial motion
of 280/12 kt. The system should continue to move westward over the
next day or two, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.
The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one
and remains closely aligned with the HCCA consensus aid.
 
The depression will continue to be within an environment of
moderate to strong wind shear and mid-level dry air. Due to this
hostile environment, Norbert is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Tuesday, with the system dissipating into an open trough
shortly thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 20.3N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 20.6N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 20.6N 146.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED