Tropical Cyclone Discussion

582
WTPZ44 KNHC 150232
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

Deep convection has decreased dramatically in association with 
Norbert over the past several hours.  A fairly recent Oceansat 
scatterometer pass and a Dvorak classification from TAFB 
indicate that the system has dropped below tropical storm strength, 
and the advisory intensity is reduced to 30 kt.

Norbert is moving a little north of west with an initial motion 
estimate of 285/13 kt.  The cyclone should move mainly westward 
within the flow south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge for 
the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is close to 
the latest corrected model consensus, HCCA, guidance.
 
The system should remain in an environment of strong vertical wind 
shear and relatively dry and stable air for the next few days.  
Therefore, the cyclone is expected to become post-tropical within 
24 hours and then open up into a trough by Wednesday.

Now that Norbert is in the Central Pacific, additional information 
on this system can be found under Central Pacific basin headers 
beginning with the next advisory at 1100 PM HST.  Future Tropical 
Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and 
WMO header WTPA41 PHFO.  Products will continue to be available on 
the web at hurricanes.gov
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 20.2N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 20.5N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 20.7N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 20.8N 147.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED