Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
380 AXNT20 KNHC 142348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 53W, from 07N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 09N to 19N between 47W and 56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 08N31W to 09N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 14N between 07W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 18W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Widely scattered showers are basin-wide. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high pressure offshore SE Louisiana dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and moderate SE winds W of 94W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak ridging over the NE Gulf will persist into Tue supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night. Conditions will improve Fri through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge centered north of the Bahamas and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are ongoing over the SW Caribbean between Colombia and NE Nicaragua due to the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon. Scattered heavy showers are ongoing over the E Caribbean being fueled by abundant moisture and upper level diffluent flow. For the forecast, fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean will persist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through midweek. Winds may diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates much of the basin, forcing fresh easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. A surface trough prevails in the central subtropical Atlantic extending from 24N49W to 30N50W, which is producing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and between 43W and 59W. Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week. A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next seven days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail over the central and eastern subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, on Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure gradient.