Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
733 AXNT20 KNHC 140935 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the wave axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 17N, moving westward at near 15 kt. A few showers are found near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 13N16W and continues to 08N35W to 10N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N52W to near 08N61W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 14N and east of 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high pressure system over central Florida dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas south of a line from NE Texas to NE Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Strong storms are noted off Veracruz in the Bay of Campeche and a few showers are occurring off western Florida. For the forecast, weak ridging over the NE Gulf will persist into Tue supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night. Conditions will improve Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over Haiti, and promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of the Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W, across the Lesser Antilles to 58W. Scattered strong convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 16N. A tight pressure gradient continues to support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the NW basin. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the Bahamas and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean. These conditions will persist through the workweek. Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish this morning. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next several days in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the area, west of 55W. Fresh easterly winds are noted off northern Hispaniola. A surface trough along 47W in the central Atlantic is producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 24N and between 41W and 60W. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near these storms. Elsewhere, an expansive ridge persists in the central and eastern Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker seas and moderate seas across the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will force fresh to locally strong easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight. On Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through Thu. Conditions will improve Thu night into Fri. During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms.