Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

109
AXNT20 KNHC 111657
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen W of the 
wave axis to near 40W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W, south of 21N and extends
southward into central Colombia, moving westward at 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen over the waters SE of
Jamaica to near the wave axis. 
The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N42W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. 
Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N west of 46W.
The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring S of 11N and W of 79W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Broad upper-level troughing and convergent surface winds over and
across much of the northern Gulf support numerous moderate 
convection from Fort Myers, FL to South Padre Island, TX 
northward. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate winds and 
slight seas prevail across the Gulf. 
For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night off the 
W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW 
Gulf. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker for the next 
several days due to the influence of weak high pressure centered 
over the N Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to strong trades with seas 6-8 ft are occurring over the
central Caribbean between 67W-80W. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to
moderate trades and slight seas prevail elsewhere. No additional 
convection is occurring over the Caribbean beyond that described 
in the tropical waves and monsoon trough/ITCZ sections.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient from ridging north of the
area to the Colombian Low will continue to force strong to 
locally near-gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next 
several days. From tonight through Mon night, trades over the Gulf
of Honduras will increase to fresh to locally strong. Elsewhere, 
winds will be moderate or weaker. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N43W to 26N53W to 
30N60W, with a frontal remnant trough then extending to 31N71W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 100 NM south of
these features. The pressure- gradient between the 1020 mb 
Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure at the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough is forcing moderate to fresh trades with seas of 4-7 ft 
south of 22N. The exception is the fresh to locally strong NE 
winds with seas of 5-8 ft near the NW Africa coast north of 20N 
and the Canary Islands, as well as a region N of the ITCZ to 15N and
W of 50W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 
ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola 
including the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh to 
locally strong through early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-
Azores High situated along 30N should support only moderate or 
weaker winds across the remaining forecast waters for the next 
several days.