Tropical Cyclone Discussion

165
WTPZ44 KNHC 100233
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

There has been no significant increase in the overall organization 
of the tropical cyclone over the past several hours.  The system is 
producing vigorous deep convection well east of the estimated center 
location with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder.  These heavy 
showers and thunderstorms are not very well organized with little 
evidence of convective banding at this time.  There is some westerly 
shear over the depression since the low-level center is near the 
western edge of the main cloud mass.  Given that the system has not 
become much better organized since the previous advisory, the 
intensity is held at 30 kt for now.  This is just a little below the 
subjective Dvorak estimate.

The center appears to have reformed in the low-level vorticity 
maximum on the northern side of the broad circulation, and is a 
little to the north of the previous track.  A mid-tropospheric ridge 
should prevail to the north of the system for the next several days, 
which should keep the cyclone moving on a generally westward track.  
Late in the forecast period, the ridge shifts westward and builds a 
little.  This could result in a gradual turn to the left around day 
5.  The official forecast is a little north of the previous NHC 
track and is close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, 
guidance.
 
The system is expected to be in a reasonably conductive environment 
for intensification in a few days.  However, the current westerly 
shear could be an impediment to short-term strengthening.  Also, 
some arc clouds have been seen emanating from the cyclone on visible 
satellite imagery, which is usually indicative of the presence of 
some dry mid-level air.  However, these negative factors are 
expected to be short-lived, and the system is forecast to strengthen 
and eventually become a hurricane.  The official intensity forecast 
is similar to the simple and corrected consensus intensity model 
predictions and is the same as in the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 16.4N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH