Tropical Cyclone Discussion

653
WTPZ44 KNHC 092032
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest 
EP96) has developed a more organized circulation, along with 
persistent convection east of its center. Scatterometry data from 
around 1700 UTC revealed a slightly elongated but closed circulation 
with a max wind of around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from 
TAFB rated this system at 2.5/2.5, or an intensity at around 35 kt. 
Given the scatterometry data and satellite imagery, advisories have 
been initiated on Tropical Depression 14-E, with an initial 
intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of this system was estimated at 285/8 kt, but 
this is uncertain since the system has only recently formed. Global 
models depict mid-level ridging building north of the depression, 
so a primarily west to west-northwest motion is expected over the 
next several days. By late this weekend into early next week, the
guidance depicts a slight weakening in the ridge to the north that 
will shift the track slightly more west-northwestward, before the 
ridge amplifies once again and pushes the system 
west-southwestward.  The official track forecast reflects a blend of 
the HCCA and GDMI, which is on the southern side of the guidance 
envelope. 

The depression is expected to enter an environment favorable for 
gradual strengthening. The SHIPS guidance depicts low vertical wind 
shear, as well as ample mid-level moisture and favorable SSTs, which 
should allow the depression to strengthen to a tropical storm 
tonight or Thursday and into a hurricane later this weekend. The 
official intensity forecast reflects a slower strengthening trend 
within the first couple of days, given that scatterometry data still 
depicts a depression with a slightly elongated center. By the end of 
the week, however, steady strengthening is forecast, and the NHC 
prediction lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope given the 
favorable environment ahead of the depression. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH