Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

775
AXNT20 KNHC 091649
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis near 21W from 02N to 19N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 18N and E of 27W. 
A tropical wave has its axis near 56W from 03N to 20N, moving
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 10N to 17N between 53W and 62W.
A tropical wave has its axis near 66W from 19N southward, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.
A central western tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of 
19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues
southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 
09N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 11N between 39W and 50W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A warm front extends from the W coast of FL to a 1017 mb low
pressure near 28N88W, with a dissipating stationary front and
frontal remnant trough extending from the low to the Upper TX
coast. Scattered moderate convection is forming N of these
features, as well as in the SE Gulf. In the SW Gulf, a surface
trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate
convection S of 22N and W of 94W. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through the 
weekend, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas 
over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate 
seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to 
a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each 
night. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light
to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near the Windward Passage, in
association with a surface trough over E Cuba.
For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to 
near- gale force, through tonight before diminishing modestly 
through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the 
persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will 
accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters 
through Thu morning. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N60W to central Florida. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of the front. A 
surface trough extends from 32N57W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N within 200 nm E 
of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W 
of 60W. The remainder of the waters are dominated by high 
pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N33W. Light 
to gentle winds are over the waters S of the monsoon trough and E 
of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the 
discussion waters. Moderate to rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S 
of 20N between 40W and 61W. 
For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure in the central 
Atlantic strengthens into late this week, winds will increase S of
21N to moderate to fresh through Thu. A stationary front will 
linger over the NW waters through tonight before lifting 
northward.