Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
750 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96): Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days, and also through seven days. A Gale Warning has been issued with this system at 1200 UTC. Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 03N through Nicaragua and Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong conveciton is from 03N to 10N between 84W and 90W. A tropical wave has its axis along 100W/101W north of 03N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 1007 mb low pressure (EP96) near 15N114W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13.5N129W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with EP96 and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found N of 05N E of 84W to the coast of Colombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, is centered near 15.5N114W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas in the N semicircle of the low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands. Pulsing fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development, EP96 will continue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters today through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Papagayo region, with moderate to rough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features for further information on Invest EP96 with a high chance of tropical cyclone development. The remnant low of Marie is centered 29N129W with an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 12 ft N of 27N between 125W and 129W. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this system cover the waters N of 22N W of 130W. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 95W and 102W, and mixing with northerly swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and medium within the next seven days.