Tropical Cyclone Discussion
768 WTPA44 PHFO 091440 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 54 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026 Infrared satellite imagery over the last several hours suggest that Lowell's convective shield is continuing to deteriorate as drier air wraps into the storm's core. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC classified the system at T3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 44-51 kt. Using these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the initial intensity was lowered to 50 kt. The initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/11 kt. A mid-level low centered over the north-central Pacific, along with high pressure to its east, is driving Lowell's north-northwestward motion. As the low dissipates, Lowell is expected to turn west-northwestward or westward along the southern flank of the high, then back toward the northwest as it rounds the western edge of the high. The track guidance exhibits significant spread late this week and into the weekend as Lowell becomes wedged between two mid-level ridges, resulting in a weak steering environment. Thus, the latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance envelope but given the spread there is low confidence in the extended forecast. Although the SHIPS guidance indicates that sea surface temperatures will remain relatively steady over the next 48 h, a dry mid-level environment and moderate vertical wind shear should induce gradual weakening. The intensity guidance generally depicts further weakening over the next 36 h, followed by a slight increase in intensity over the weekend when the aforementioned mid-level low could briefly enhance Lowell's convection. However, because the broader environment remains hostile, the NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through the entire period, with the intensity merely leveling off just after 36 h during the anticipated window of favorable trough interaction. The official NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and Lowell is still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early next week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 28.1N 162.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 28.8N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 29.0N 166.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 28.8N 168.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 28.9N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 29.6N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 31.0N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 32.7N 173.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 34.0N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL