Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

834
AXPZ20 KNHC 090948
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure,
Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W or several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 109W 
and 116W. Although the system does not have a closed surface 
circulation yet, further development is expected and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two 
and seven days.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N through Costa Rica,
Nicaragua and E Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convecton is from 02N to 08N
E of 90W.
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 98W north of 01N. It is 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection extends from 00N to 17N between 90W and 108W. 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N100W to Invest
EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N112W to 13N127W and beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active
from 12N to 18N between 122W and 131W, and from 01N to 09N W of 
125W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W has 
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two 
and seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the N semicircle of the 
low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands along with moderate 
to rough seas. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds 
are pulsing and seas have remain moderate. Clusters of showers 
and thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores 
associated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave near 
98W. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region 
due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of 
the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle 
winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and 
slight seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, regardless of development, the EP96 will 
continue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The 
trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to 
fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores today through Thu. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft in southwest swell. 
Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate
seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, 
moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then 
diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are 
expected elsewhere. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with
high potential of development.
The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an 
estimated pressure of 1003 mb. A recent scatterometer pass
confirm the continuation of strong to near-gale force winds
within the E semicircle of the low. Seas to 14 ft are ongoing 
within 390 nm E semicircle of the low per recent altimeter data,
with surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the 
waters north of 20N and west of 124W. Farther south, SW swell to
8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the 
equator between 100W and 130W, and mixing with northerly swell. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This 
swell area is forecast to expand eastward through today as the 
primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from 
this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft.
For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the
potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an 
area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of
tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and
medium within the next seven days.