Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
124 AXNT20 KNHC 090442 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 19W north of 03N is moving into the eastern Atlantic at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 17N and E of 24W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 61W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 58W and 64W. A central western tropical wave has its axis near 83W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 08N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the eastern waters from Venice, Florida to south-central Louisiana. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are active over the central and west-central Gulf north of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered between Panama and Jamaica, supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean between Cuba and Belize. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from Bermuda to Fort Pierce Florida. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N61W to 20N72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the trough N of 25N between 53W-66W. The subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure near 34N33W, and extending westward through the northwest Bahamas. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and 3-5 ft seas along the ridge axis through the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft seas south of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through tonight.