Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
409 AXPZ20 KNHC 090406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N111W or several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 12N to 21N between 106W and 115W. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days and high chance within the next seven days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W north of 04N through western Panama and S Costa Rica. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significan convecton at this time. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 02N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 01N to 16N between 89W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 10N102W to Invest EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N111W to 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 17N between 122W and 132W, and from 02N to 10N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N111W has high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the NE quadrant of the low are affecting the outer Jalisco offshores and the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds are pulsing. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores associated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of remnant low of Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development, EP96 will continue to affect the outer Jalisco offshores as well as the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through Wed evening. A trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores tonight through Thu evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with high potential of development. The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an estimated pressure of 1002 mb. Strong to near-gale force winds and seas to 14 ft are ongoing within 90 nm in the northern semicircle of the low pressure, with surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 110W and 120W and mixing with northerly swell. Winds and combined seas will diminish through mid week as the low dissipates. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft.