Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
877 AXNT20 KNHC 081740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 44W and 53W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 19N between 53W and 60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 80W and 84W, likely enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 08N35W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 15N and E of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 05N to 10N between 25W and 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central FL to south-central LA. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved westward off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N70W to central Florida. A pre-frontal trough also extends from just north of Hispaniola to near 32N58W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front and trough. Convergent surface winds are also supporting scattered moderate convection near the SW Bahamas and FL Straits. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N34W. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 22N and E of 60W, with fresh to locally strong winds occurring near the Tropical Wave analyzed near 47W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range from 14N to 28N between 21W and 55W. Mainly moderate seas dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through tonight.