Tropical Cyclone Discussion

009
WTPZ43 KNHC 080849
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade as the 
cyclone continues to weaken. What is the left of the deep convection 
is very minimal and limited to the southeastern quadrant of the 
storm. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/35 kt, and the 
objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 
30-44 kt. The most recent scatterometer pass showed that there are 
still some 35-kt winds and given that this pass only partially 
captured the storm, there could still be some stronger winds. 
Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial 
motion estimate of around 300/7 kt. Marie is expected to turn more 
northwestward and move within the flow between a ridge extending 
westward from the southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of 
the tropical cyclone. The current NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous forecast track, and is close to the corrected model 
consensus.
 
Marie is expected to move over cooler waters for the next day or so, 
and based on the decreasing convection, it seems likely that the 
storm will become post-tropical within the next 24 h. Unless deep 
convection is able to return to the cyclone soon, Marie's 
post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than the official 
forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the 
previous intensity forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 25.5N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 26.3N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 27.9N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1800Z 29.8N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 32.1N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED