Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
628 AXNT20 KNHC 080834 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 03N to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 43W and 48W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W, moving westward near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 52W and 57W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis S of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from 09N27W to 07N40W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 14W and 20W, and from 05N to 08N between 26N and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central Florida to Mississippi. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved westward off the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N69W to central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 33N31W. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 22N and E of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range from 15N to 28N and E of 45W. Mainly moderate seas dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through tonight.