Tropical Cyclone Discussion

232
WTPZ43 KNHC 080234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026
 
Marie continues its gradual weakening trend, although the cyclone 
still has a substantial low-level circulation.  Deep convection is 
minimal and confined to the southeastern quadrant of the system. 
Based on a continued slow spin down from the earlier scatterometer 
overpass, the winds are reduced slightly to 45 kt for this advisory, 
although this may be generous.  Another scatterometer overpass 
should sample the system in a few hours.
 
The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial 
motion estimate of around 290/7 kt.  There is not much change to the 
track forecast.  Marie is expected to turn northwestward soon and 
move within the flow between a ridge extending westward from the 
southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of the tropical 
cyclone.  The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC 
track, and is close to the corrected model consensus.
 
Marie is over SSTs near 24 deg C and it should encounter even cooler 
waters during the next day or so.  Given the decreasing convection, 
it now appears that the cyclone will become post-tropical in 24 
hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast.  Unless deep 
convection redevelops in the system soon, however, Marie's 
post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than indicated 
here.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 25.1N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 25.8N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 27.2N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  09/1200Z 29.1N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0000Z 31.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1200Z 33.4N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED