Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
742 AXPZ20 KNHC 071605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 07 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.7N 124.4W, or about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 23 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie's structure over the last several hours. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in SW quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the W quadrant and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days. Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the area, with its axis along 85W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09.5N between 82W and 88W. A tropical wave has its axis along 110W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. An overnight Ascat pass depicted a wind shift from northeast to southeast across the wave axis. These winds were of light to gentle speeds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 04N to 10N between 106W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northwest Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10.5N85W to 11N100W to 11N115W to 11N125W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 124W-130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 130W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Fresh southeast to south winds on the outer eastern fringes of Marie are over the outer offshore waters that correspond from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, and maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, to near 29.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed. Marie will dissipate early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin late Tue night into early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region as noted in an overnight Ascat pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over some portions of the offshore waters, primarily south of northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, and to near 29.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Marie is then forecast to weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed and dissipate early on Fri Cross-equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell produce seas to 8 ft may reach the far southern boundary of the south-central waters Tue through Thu. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward.