Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
020 WTPA34 PHFO 071451 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 46 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR OAHU WITH LOWELL... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 162.6W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Oahu. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau * The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Oahu A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Any additional eastward shifts in the forecast would require the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Oahu. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the progress of Lowell. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 162.6 West. Lowell is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north- northeastward to northward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Lowell is expected to near or just west of Niihau tonight and early Tuesday. Lowell is then forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow down by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected through Tuesday. However, Lowell is forecast to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Kauai County beginning this afternoon or evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Oahu beginning this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 16 inches possible. For the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Oahu and Maui county, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 10 inches possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big Island. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at https://hurricanes.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.gif STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Kauai County...2-4 ft, with the highest expected values along the south coast of Kauai and the island of Niihau Oahu...Up to 1 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes are also possible across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands. SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.