Tropical Cyclone Discussion

641
WTPZ43 KNHC 071433
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026
 
Latest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie's structure
over the last several hours. Convection can be seen flaring up
across the western and southern semicircles, with drier air evident
within the storm's northern half. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB was 55 kt, while objective estimates
from CIMSS range from 45-53 kt. Given the lack of significant
change in Marie's satellite presentation, the initial intensity
estimate was held steady at 55 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate was 300/6 kt. Marie is forecast to
continue to move west-northwestward over the next 24 hours before a
cutoff low from the northeast Pacific is expected to shift the
storm's motion more northwestward. Guidance has generally favored a
slight rightward shift in Marie's track beyond day 2 due to this
anticipated interaction with the cutoff low, so the latest NHC track
forecast reflects this, following a blend of HCCA, GDMI, and the
previous track forecast.
 
With Marie moving over cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind
shear, steady weakening is expected over the next couple of days.
Marie is forecast to become post-tropical on Wednesday, before
dissipating shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast
reflects a sharper weakening trend over the next 24 hours, before
becoming more gradual Tuesday into Wednesday. This generally
follows the model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 24.7N 124.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 25.1N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 25.9N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 27.4N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 29.3N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 31.6N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 33.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED