Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
911 AXPZ20 KNHC 070918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.4N 123.7W at 07/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are to near 26 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 26N between 120W and 125W. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis between 104W-114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 400 nm S of the trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.S. Marie. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe of Marie are over the outer offshore waters mainly N of 24N. Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.8N 124.6W this afternoon, 25.4N 125.8W Tue morning, 26.5N 126.9W Tue afternoon, 28.2N 127.9W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near 30.4N 129.2W Wed afternoon, and 32.4N 130.8W Thu morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 36.0N 134.6W by early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California early this week as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin by around midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds by midweek. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about T.S. Marie. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas persist from 22N to 26N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of the remnants of Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, T.S. Marie will move to 24.8N 124.6W this afternoon, 25.4N 125.8W Tue morning, 26.5N 126.9W Tue afternoon, 28.2N 127.9W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near 30.4N 129.2W Wed afternoon, and 32.4N 130.8W Thu morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 36.0N 134.6W by early Fri. Cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern waters west of 100W during the week. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.