Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
427 AXNT20 KNHC 070339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is present near this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong occurring south of 13N and west of 79W in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 07N43W and then from 07N46W to near 05N53W. No significant convection is evident near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SE Gulf waters, while some storms are approaching the Florida Gulf coast north of Tampa. In the eastern Bay of Campeche, storms that developed over the western Yucatan peninsula are moving westward at 25-30 kt. Mariners in the area are urged to use caution. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the central Gulf and the thermal trough over western Yucatan support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. The pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the islands and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. An upper level low in the central Caribbean and diurnal heating combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and nearby waters. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms also dot the NE and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 25N to south Florida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, and locally near- gale force, with rough seas, Mon through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level trough over the western Atlantic and ample deep atmospheric moisture and instability support numerous showers and thunderstorms in the SW North Atlantic, especially north of 23N and west of 55W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted north of 25N and between 50W and 70W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 26N52W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present south of 24N and between 30W and 70W. A stronger pressure gradient in the far eastern Atlantic sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 25N to south Florida will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front approaching the northern waters will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 65W through Tue.