Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
852 AXNT20 KNHC 062358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mon Sep 07 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W south of 20N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Only isolated showers are seen near its southern portion from 07N to 09N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, reaching southward to central Panama. It is extends from central Cuba southward into the far eastern Pacific. The wave is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 11N west of the wave inland Central America, and also south of 10N east of the wave to the northwest portion of Colombia. This activity is being further enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that crosses the wave axis near 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19.5N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W, then west-northwestward to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to near 07N55W. Aside from convection described above under Tropical Waves, convection remains very limited across the area under a dry and stable atmospheric environment. At best, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are present. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A shortwave trough aloft moving through the southeastern U.S. is working on a very moist and unstable airmass that is in place over the region. This is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms over some sections of northern and central Florida, southern Alabama and Mississippi. A weak trough near the southeastern Gulf is helping to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of about 25N and east of 92W to near the Florida Keys and over some sections of the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N87W, is providing for light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas are over the forecast waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over most of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean as highlighted by satellite scatterometer data passes. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends east to west roughly along 25N to South Florida. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. The gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, and locally near-gale force, with rough seas, Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of a mid-level trough and ample deep atmospheric moisture and instability in place is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms north of about 23N and west of 72W. Similar activity to the southeast of a frontal boundary is noted north of 27N between 56W and 72W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center near 25N54W. The associated gradient is generally allowing for gentle winds near the high center, as well as along the ridge extending from the high along 25N. A stronger high center of 1026 mb is centered north of the area near 36N21W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W as depicted in satellite scatterometer data passes. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range. For the forecast west of 55W, the high center near 25N54W will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters tonight, hen stall near 31N through midweek before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters west of 65W through Tue.