Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
454 AXPZ20 KNHC 061605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 23.5N 122.5W, or about 700 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 06/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are to near 29 ft. Latest satellite imagery reveals that Marie has become less organized since 24 hours ago. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrants and and 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest tonight. Marie is then expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by Tue. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the next several days. Marie is forecast to become a post- tropical remnant low on Wed.S wells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical has its axis along 107W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis, and from 19N to 21N between the coastal waters of Jalisco and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near northwest Colombia, west-southwestward through northern Panama, and to 09N84W to 10N103W to 09N111W and to 12N118W. It resumes to the southwest of Marie at 13N126W to 10N134W and to 12N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 07N between 130W-140W, from 03N to 09N between 77W-83W, from 05N to 09N between 83W-90W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 90W-98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 113W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered well west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Hurricane Marie is producing moderate to locally strong cyclonic winds and very rough seas across the far offshore waters of Baja California, especially west of 116W and south of 27N. In the rest of the Baja California waters, moderate or weaker winds and rough seas are noted. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and just offshore Baja California Sur. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 24.1N 123.2W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 24.7N 124.3W Mon morning, to near 25.3N 125.7W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 26.3N 127.0W Tue morning, to near 27.7N 127.9W Tue evening, to near 29.7N 128.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Marie is forecast to weaken to a remnant low N of the area by early on Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California early this week as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin by around the middle portion of the upcoming week. Looking ahead, a trough of low several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent Ascat scatterometer passe captured fresh northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building ridge by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds and rough seas. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least midweek, diminishing some today through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Marie located well west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Hurricane Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 23.5N 122.5W, or about 700 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.1N 123.2W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 24.7N 124.3W Mon morning, to near 25.3N 125.7W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 26.3N 127.0W Tue morning, to near 27.7N 127.9W Tue evening, to near 29.7N 128.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Marie is forecast to weaken to a remnant low N of the area by early on Thu. Looking ahead, cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern waters west of 100W during much of the week. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward.