Tropical Cyclone Discussion
753 WTPZ43 KNHC 061452 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026 Marie has become less organized since the previous advisory and no longer has an eye. In fact, the northwest quadrant is completely void of deep convection. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 59-77 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 kt. Marie is currently feeling some pull by a mid- to upper-level trough currently over the U.S. west coast. As that trough moves eastward on Monday and loosens its grip on Marie, the cyclone should turn back toward the west-northwest for a day or so. Then, another mid- to upper-level low will strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing a turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on Tuesday. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI). Based on the spread in the guidance, confidence in the track forecast is near average. Marie has already crossed the 26C isotherm, and currently resides within a dry, low-shear environment. Marie will move into steadily decreasing water temperatures and even drier air over the next few days. Around hour 48, southwesterly vertical wind shear will increase significantly as Marie approaches the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. A slightly lower intensity is shown in the 12-36 hour time period, mainly due to the weaker initial intensity along with expected steady weakening over the next couple of days, although the NHC intensity forecast is still at the high end of model suite during that time. Marie could hang on as a 35-40 kt tropical storm in the 48 to 72 h period as the upper-level low may briefly provide some favorable dynamics before the shear becomes too strong. The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Marie should lose its convection and become a post-tropical remnant low just beyond the hour 72 point, so NHC will continue to show post-tropical after that time. After the system becomes post-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4 to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED