Tropical Cyclone Discussion

755
WTPZ43 KNHC 060847
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Convection associated with Marie, while showing well organized 
banding,  has diminished some in intensity since the last advisory. 
However, this has not yet translated into a notable weakening in the 
various satellite intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity 
remains a possibly generous 80 kt.

The initial motion is 315/7 kt. Marie is currently being steered by 
a mid- to upper-level ridge to the northeast and heading for a 
break in the ridge caused by a large trough over the U. S. West 
Coast. This trough is forecast to move northeastward during the 
next 24 h, allowing some ridging to develop north of Marie and turn 
the cyclone west-northwestward. By 48 h, a new trough developing to 
the northwest of Marie should turn the cyclone back to a northwest 
motion, with the low-level center continuing this general motion 
until the system dissipates.  The new forecast track is in good 
agreement with the HCCA Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean, and the Florida State Superensemble.

Marie is starting to move into sea surface temperatures below 26C, 
and the the temperatures get progressively colder along the 
forecast track. This, combined with some dry air entrainment, 
should start a steady weakening later today.  After 48 h, 
increasing shear should cause the cyclone to become decoupled 
vertically, which should lead to the convection dissipating and the 
cyclone becoming post-tropical between 72-96 h. The global models 
forecast the low-level circulation to dissipate completely by 120 h, 
and the intensity forecast follows this.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 23.1N 121.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 23.8N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 24.5N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 25.1N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 25.8N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 27.0N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 28.7N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 32.7N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED