Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
461 AXNT20 KNHC 060415 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave is along 36N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis and S of 15N. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 67W, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the wave axis mainly between 56W and 69W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W, and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then westward to near 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is limited across the area. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region, anchored by a weak 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N86W. Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the basin, except gentle to moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over south-central Florida and in the western Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave over Puerto Rico is supporting some convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms have developed over parts of Cuba, more concentrated in the central portion of the island. Similar convection is also affecting the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas, early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 28N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift related to the trough axis. This feature is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge, with the main center of 1026 mb located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 18N and E of 21W, including the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range with these winds. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except just offshore Hispaniola where moderate to fresh winds are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail across the area into the middle of next week, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters then stall along 31N for the first part of week.