Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
161 AXPZ20 KNHC 060240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0235 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 22.6N 121.3W at 06/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is present from 18N to 25N and between 117W and 125W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast early next week. Marie is then expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by Tuesday. Steady weakening is expected for the next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W, extending from SW Mexico to 04N, moving west at 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 12N112W, then continues from 13N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 01N to 15N and east of 113W. Similar convection is found from 01N to 14N and west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered well west of Baja California, Mexico. Hurricane Marie continues to moving away from Mexico and the offshore waters. However, fresh to strong cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring in the far offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the nearshore waters of Baja California Sur and SW Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 22.6N 121.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Marie will move to 23.2N 122.0W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N 122.9W Sun evening, 24.6N 124.1W Mon morning, 25.2N 125.4W Mon evening, 26.1N 126.6W Tue morning, and 27.5N 127.5W Tue evening. Marie will weaken to a remnant low over 31.4N 129.2W late Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to develop in the offshore waters of Baja California and N Gulf of California early next week as Marie moves away. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by mid to late next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate pressure gradient driven by high pressure north of the area supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off Central America and Colombia, producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient is expected to tighten resulting in strong gap winds and rough seas. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days, decreasing somewhat Sun and Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Marie located well west of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impact of Hurricane Marie in the NE waters, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas are occurring from 20N to 27N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 22.6N 121.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Marie will move to 23.2N 122.0W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N 122.9W Sun evening, 24.6N 124.1W Mon morning, 25.2N 125.4W Mon evening, 26.1N 126.6W Tue morning, and 27.5N 127.5W Tue evening. Marie will weaken to a remnant low over 31.4N 129.2W late Wed. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.