Tropical Cyclone Discussion
092 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026 The eye of Marie has become increasingly ragged and misshapen over the past few hours, while cloud tops in its center have begun to cool. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass from earlier this evening depicted a vertically aligned cyclone, but the eyewall remained poorly defined along the western and southwestern sides. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 77-94 kt. However, given the degradation in structure, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Marie is moving northwestward around 6 kt, steered by a strong mid-level ridge anchored over the central United States. This general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. As Marie weakens and becomes more shallow, a turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast as the cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. By midweek, a closed low moving southward along the U.S. West Coast is expected to induce an acceleration toward the northwestward, followed by a turn toward the north. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become less favorable over the next couple days as Marie moves over cooler sea surface temperatures, resulting in slow weakening into early next week. More rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter as increasing wind shear decouples the cyclone and displaces any remaining convection well to the north of its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Marie to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h, followed by dissipation by 120 h. The NHC track and intensity forecasts are very close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.6N 121.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 24.0N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 24.6N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 26.1N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 27.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 31.4N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED