Tropical Cyclone Discussion
775 WTPA45 PHFO 052034 TCDCP5 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 38 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026 Visible satellite imagery indicates that Karina's low-level circulation has become totally decoupled from the mid- to upper-levels. Deep convection is now limited to a shield to the north of the cyclone. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from JTWC plus decreasing objective estimates from UW-CIMSS supported lowering the intensity estimate to 60 kt at 18Z. Since then, further degradation of the satellite appearance of Karina over the past few hours justify lowering the intensity estimate to 55 kt for this advisory. Largely because Karina has become shallow sooner than expected, the tropical storm has also moved south of the previous forecast track. This has necessitated another southward shift to the NHC forecast, which is near the southern extreme of the reliable guidance envelope. A further southward adjustment may be necessary in future advisories. Karina is now forecast to move generally west-northwestward to westward for the next couple of days, steered primarily by low-level flow associated with a subtropical high centered well north of the tropical storm. This motion will likely continue until Karina dissipates in a few days. Further weakening from southwesterly shear and dry air is likely. The official forecast calls for Karina to weaken slightly faster than previously shown, but is generally similar and lies near the middle of the models, which are all in good agreement. Karina is forecast to become post-tropical in 2 days, and based on current trends, it could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.6N 143.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 145.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 22.8N 146.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.0N 148.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 23.4N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED