Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
140 AXNT20 KNHC 051613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and is along 18.5W, south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 11N to 13N and west of 20W. A tropical wave is along 32.5N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 10N between 26W and 35W. A tropical wave is along 62.5W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 58W and the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 76W, and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region supporting light to gentle winds, except gentle to moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Isolated showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the central and north- central part of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong, with locally near-gale force winds and rough seas, early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail into the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 30N78.5W to southern Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with this feature. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from 28N68W to just north of Hispaniola. Another surface trough is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 45W and 55W. A 1019 mb high pressure remains over the Atlantic and is centered near 24N40W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is also under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail across the area through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front is likely to approach the northern waters, then stall along 31N for the first part of next week.