Tropical Cyclone Discussion
463 WTPA44 PHFO 050248 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 Lowell remains an extremely impressive hurricane this afternoon. Satellite imagery continues to show a warm and well-defined eye surrounded by a very symmetric eyewall. The ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding the eye has also expanded during the past few hours, with temperatures generally between -70 and -75 C. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen about 8 mb since 18 UTC, with a recent minimum pressure of 922 mb. The aircraft also measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 153 kt in the northeastern eyewall. Given the continued strengthening and impressive satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 140 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a Category 5 hurricane once again. The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Some additional strengthening appears possible during the next 12 h. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak tonight while Lowell remains over warm waters, and the recent pressure fall and increasingly impressive satellite presentation suggest that the hurricane could further intensify. Thereafter, some gradual weakening is forecast as the hurricane begins to encounter increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The weakening rate should increase by Sunday and Monday as the shear strengthens considerably and Lowell moves over progressively cooler waters and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. Despite the expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory and remains above the guidance envelope through much of the period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 13.3N 161.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 162.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.6N 163.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 164.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 19.8N 163.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 24.4N 162.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 27.5N 164.5W 75 KT 85 MPH